Recently, the international oil price has experienced a two-day plunging situation, and then rebounded but still weak. However, it is difficult to change the situation of the “four consecutive rises” in the retail price limit of Current oil products on October 19. At that time, gasoline in parts of North China, South China and Southwest China will entering the “8 yuan” era again after five years.
Iran’s concerns about the supply of crude oil due to sanctions have escalated, stimulating international oil prices. However, after the International Monetary Fund bearish on economic expectations for the next year, US stocks plunged first and led the Asia-Pacific stock market and the global oil market to fall. The surge in API stocks and EIA short-selling expectations pushed international oil prices to plummet for two consecutive days. After the hurricane climate triggered US crude oil production, coupled with the tension between Saudi Arabia and the United States, the supply of crude oil in the Middle East faced challenges, and crude oil prices rebounded slightly.
As of the close of October 15, the light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $0.44 to close at $71.78 a barrel, or 0.62%. London Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose $0.35 to close at $80.78 a barrel, or 0.44%.
Zhuo Chuang information analyst Yang Xia said that the previous round of domestic refined oil retail price limit has increased a lot, the initial rate of change in the current round of price adjustment cycle is at a positive high. And because of the National Day holiday, the rate of change calculation cycle is long, the short-term crude oil surge and the impact on the rate of change is limited, only the limited increase in refined oil, the closing of the domestic 7th working day on October 15 reference crude oil rate of change It is 4.42%, corresponding to the increase of 192 yuan / ton of gasoline and diesel, the price adjustment window is 24 o'clock on October 19. The price is increased by 0.25 yuan and 0.16 yuan per liter. This round of refined oil retail price limit "four consecutive rises" is a foregone conclusion.
The crude oil change rate monitored by Zhongyu Information was 4.86%, corresponding to an increase of 190 yuan/ton. Yang Xiaofen, an analyst at the agency, said that as crude oil prices stopped falling and rose, the expected increase in refined oil products continued to narrow, but it has reached the seventh working day. According to the current crude oil price calculation, the current round of upward adjustment is basically determined.
By then, 92# gasoline in North China, South China and Southwest China will exceed 8 yuan/liter, and retail gasoline prices will entering the “8 yuan” era again after five years. This means that the fuel cost of consumers continues to increase. There are still three working days from the price adjustment window. According to the increase of 192 yuan/ton, the gasoline is raised by 0.59 yuan per liter during the “four consecutive rises” period. 92# gasoline spends nearly 30 yuan.
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