The 2019 World Economic Analysis Report released by the Macro Analysis Group of the Shanghai Institute of Social Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Shanghai on the 19th shows that 2018 is a year of rapid changes in the world economy, and the global economy continues its recovery in 2017. Maintaining steady growth, the world economy has maintained a good momentum.
The report believes that after the global financial crisis in 2008, the world economy entered a low-growth channel, and it did not have a significant rebound until 2017. Overall, in 2018, the global economic growth rate did not reach the forecast of major institutions at the beginning of the year. Value, but also maintained a steady growth of year-on-year growth. According to the country, although the overall economic growth rate of developed countries is higher, the internal differentiation is large; the growth rate of emerging and developing economies is slow, and the quality of the bricks is insufficient.
In 2018, the global economic growth rate has become a steady state, with both cyclical factors and structural factors. In terms of cyclical factors, after the global economic crisis in 2008, the world has rebounded from the bottom of the new Kuznets cycle. From the perspective of structural factors, in 2018, both developed and developing countries are undergoing active economic restructuring, and structural optimization has inherently promoted economic stabilization.
The report suggests that one factor contributing to the rise in global economic growth is the chain reaction of the US tax cuts. After the United States announced tax cuts, the United Kingdom, France, India and other have proposed tax cuts, tax cuts became the economic hot words of 2018. The US-led tax cuts have indeed triggered a chain reaction at the global level. From the perspective of individuals and families, tax cuts can increase personal disposable income and stimulate consumption; from a business perspective, tax cuts may lead companies to increase R&D investment or other investment projects, create more output, and drive economic growth. Therefore, on the whole, the policy of tax reduction and fee reduction has a positive effect on the global economic recovery.
The report pointed out that in 2018, the world economy achieved steady growth in the "great friction" and "great adjustment", and the growth rate was basically the same as that of the previous year. However, unlike the strong rebound of the economies of all countries in 2017, the global economic growth in 2018 has become more distinct. In addition to the continuous increase in the growth rate of a few countries such as the United States, the economic growth rate of most economies has declined somewhat, and the signs of a global economic downturn are worthy of vigilance.
The report predicts that the global economy will continue to maintain a slow growth trend in 2019, but with the increase in economic transmission caused by global trade friction, it is not ruled out that 2020 will lead to a decline in economic growth. It is predicted that the global economic growth rate will be 3.41% and 3.32% respectively this year and next.
The report provides an in-depth analysis of the connotation and impact of the current world's changes in the past century. It points out that the world's major changes mean that the process of economic globalization has undergone profound changes, and that the global multilateralism system is brewing profound adjustments, which means that existing The international system and the global order are in urgent need of profound transformation and reshaping. These historic major adjustments will profoundly affect the world economic trends and economic globalization in the longer term from the aspects of technology, structure, rules and systems. Facing the great changes in the world, China proposes to promote the building of a community of human destiny and work together to build a world of lasting peace, universal security, common prosperity, openness, tolerance, and clean beauty. These Chinese ideas and Chinese wisdom will be against the world economy, the international order and China itself. Development has a very long-term and profound impact.
The report also stressed that with the profound changes in the external environment, the Chinese economy is facing afternoon pressure, but China's development is still in and will be in a period of important strategic opportunities. The long-term trend of China’s economy is improving, and the trend of progress is not fundamentally changed. The new variables, new kinetic energy, new space and new layout of the new era have provided new impetus to the high-quality development of China’s economy in the new era. New opportunities and new prospects. Facing the new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics and the strategic opportunity period of "a big change in a hundred years", we need to continue to deepen reform, expand and open, build a new pattern of all-round development, and promote the high-quality development of China's economy in comprehensively deepening reform and opening up.
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